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ACA Enhanced Tax Credit Expiration

Most individuals and families who purchase their own healthcare coverage have been eligible for premium tax credits that reduce their out-of-pocket costs since 2014. Congress temporarily expanded these credits in 2021 and 2022, and these expanded credits are set to expire at the end of this year.

Co-Equal has developed estimates for each congressional district of the number of individuals enrolled in marketplace coverage, the average premium increases for enrollees if the enhanced tax credits expire, premium increases for three representative households, and coverage losses.

In the average congressional district, 55,800 individuals enrolled in marketplace coverage in 2025. If the enhanced tax credits expire, premiums would increase for these enrollees by $1,050 on average. Individual households would see larger increases. In the average congressional district:

  • A 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 would see premiums more than triple – from $7,220 to an average of $30,760.
  • A 40-year-old couple with two children earning $129,000 would see premiums more than double – from $10,960 to an average of $23,310.
  • A 35-year-old single parent earning $32,000 would see premiums increase over 100-fold – from $13 to $1,350.

In the average district, up to 14,500 marketplace enrollees could become uninsured over the next decade.

Explore The DataImpact in the Average DistrictMethodology